GEMA Hurricane Watch 2010

GEMA Hurricane Watch 2010

Preparedness Bulletin #20
September 30, 2010

Goodbye Matthew, Hello Nic...
Remember last week when we said to watch for Tropical Storm Matthew?
Matthew dissipated over the Yucatan Peninsula, causing extreme flooding
and triggering a massive landslide in Mexico; an area that only recently
began to recover from Hurricane Karl. Thunderstorms and showers formed and
laid the groundwork for Tropical Storm Nicole to come out of the shadows.
Tropical Storm Nicole is currently...dead. Nicole dissipated Wednesday at
about 5 p.m. according to NOAA, leaving the Atlantic with no named storm
at the moment. Time to celebrate right? The season is over? Not quite.

First off, while Nicole may technically not be under the tropical storm
classification; it's still a huge threat to the East Coast of the United
States. The system is an enormous extratropical storm with wind gusts
reaching 60+ mph and with heavy flooding possible in select areas. Just as
a reminder, an extratropical system is a term used in advisories and
tropical summaries to indicate that a cyclone has lost its "tropical"
characteristics. Luckily the system shouldn't have much of an impact on
Georgia's coastline as it moves off our coast.

We also have "Disturbance Invest AL97" sitting east of the Caribbean
islands. This system is interesting to note because it's a combination of
two tropical waves and may be moving into warmer waters. If this system
moves below Cuba we could have it in the same breading grounds Matthew and
Nicole were in; thus increasing the chance this system could affect our
region. This system also has a possibility of turning off into the
Atlantic and becoming nothing more than a memory. Since the cloud
structure is such a mess right now; we really can't tell where it may end
up. Needless to say this system is the one to watch for next week.

How much does a hurricane weigh?
An average hurricane can weigh about 360,000 Blue whales. Now I know what
you may be thinking. Where did we get such an awesome measurement? The
great employees of NPR.org use unconventional methods of measurement that
allow people to understand complex scientific issues! This must see video
can be found by clicking here.

Awesome Resources
Did you know Google Earth can track hurricane paths? Well now you do!
Check out hurricane plot points in Google Earth by clicking here.

And take a look at this awesome hurricane tracking page from the NOAA
Coastal Service Center that allows you to look at historical tracking for
hurricanes all the way back to 1851! Click here to find out more.

NASA has its own hurricane resource page filled which a multitude of
media. Click here to find out more about this website.

Question of the week
The answer to last week's question, "The remnants of which hurricane
helped form the "Perfect Storm" in 1991?" is Hurricane Grace. Next week's
question is, "What area of a tropical storm or hurricane usually has the
largest amount of rain?

 

Preparedness Bulletin #19
September 23, 2010

Lisa is trying her best...with Matthew around the corner
Hurricane Igor tore through Bermuda with tremendous force last week,
generating heavy wind and flooding conditions. Igor was such a powerful
storm that it maintained hurricane status well past Maine causing intense
flooding and damage to the Newfoundland area. We also saw Hurricane Julia
try its best to survive but just couldn't live up to the standard Igor
left behind. However, it is worth noting that the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is giving the remnants of Julia a 10
percent chance of reforming within 48 hours of this posting. Good Luck
Julia!

Now everyone is watching the east Atlantic to see how Tropical Depression
Lisa will perform in the coming days. As of this posting, Lisa has had the
bad luck of being surrounded by weak winds, almost stopping the system
completely. But don't count this unpredictable storm down for the count
quite yet. The other main highlight of this week is a system brewing in
the Caribbean. As of 1:55 p.m. NOAA upgraded this system to Tropical
Depression 15, which is likely to be named Matthew in the next day or two.
Some of the tracking for this Topical Depression has it curving northward
when it hits the Yucatan Peninsula. This is a similar track Hurricane
Wilma took in 2005 when it struck Florida. Needless to say this system is
the one to watch as we go into next week.

Who would have guessed? Warm water fuels Hurricanes?
Warm waters could extend the danger period beyond the typical hurricane
season, producing an unusually active October. As recently demonstrated
with Hurricane Karl, the extremely hot waters fueled that hurricane so
fast that it intensified into a Category 3 as it hit southeastern Mexico.
An article in Bloomberg explains that since the Atlantic is hotter than
normal; it has generated such events as Igor and Julia becoming a Category
4 at the same time. Read more about the potential for a prolonged season
by clicking here.

Last week for Preparedness Month
GEMA is approaching the last week of National Preparedness month which
means another shameless promotion of our Ready Georgia campaign! Upcoming
events:
78th Annual North Georgia State Fair, Marietta – September 23 – October 3
Praise 102.5 Ready Clinic at 1227 Rockbridge Rd, Stone Mountain –
September 25

Noah's Ark 2010, 1227 Rockbridge Rd – September 25
2010 GSU Fire Safety Carnival, Atlanta –September 30

After the Rains
This week Channel 11 is showcasing news pieces highlighting the one year
anniversary of the September 2009 floods. Our own, Director Charley
English was featured in some of the pieces.


Preparedness Bulletin #18
September 16, 2010

Not one, but two Category 4 Hurricanes!
Hurricanes Igor and Julia achieved Category 4 status as they roared
through the Atlantic. They made history Wednesday by becoming the first
two named storms to be Category 4 or greater at the same time. This also
occurred in September 1926, but that was before hurricanes were given
names beyond numbers. Hurricane Julia also made history again by becoming
the strongest hurricane ever recorded that far east. The good news is both
systems should have minimal or no impact on the United States East Coast.
As of this posting, Hurricane Julia was downgraded to a Category 2 and
Igor is still a Category 4. Current tracking has Igor curving north well
ahead of where Earl turned,skipping the entire U.S. East Coast all
together. However, this puts it on a direct path to Bermuda which already
had a rough hurricane season. Hurricane Julia is forecast to turn north
even earlier and possibly curving back around by the end of the weekend.
Beyond these two systems, we have Hurricane Karl which is tracked to only
affect the southeastern coast of Mexico. The Atlantic systems are sparing
the U.S., at least for now.

Hurricane Trackers: Survivor Tools for iPad, iPhone, and even Desktop
users
ZDnet posted an interesting story this week showcasing tools individuals
can use on all types of technology devices. ZDnet writer, Jason Perlow,
starts off by describing the applications he used on his computer,
smartphones, and even the recent iPad allowing constant updates on
Hurricane Earl. His list of recommended websites and applications are:
NOAA's hurricane website; Stormpulse; IHurricaneHD; Hurricane HD; and,
Hurricane Tracker for iOS.

NOAA's hurricane website is obviously the number one source for official
tracking information on hurricanes. Stormpulse, the Adobe Flash tracking
website we featured earlier this year is full of up to date information
with a slick presentation. iHurricaneHD allows you to view tracking in a
Google Earth type layout. Hurricane HD showcases the touch capabilities of
the iPhone and iPad better than any other hurricane application. With
detailed imagery of current systems and historical tracks going back as
far as 1851, this is the beast of all tracking programs. Hurricane Tracker
is a mix between all of the other applications just mentioned in a simple
browser layout. Click here for more information.

Rain drops keep falling on my head...
This week marks the one year anniversary of historic flooding when more
than 23 inches of rain deluged parts of Georgia, including metro Atlanta.
This event serves as reminder that September is National Preparedness
Month and the "Get a Kit, Give a Kit" campaign encourages Georgians to arm
themselves with a Ready Kit of emergency supplies. These kits can assist
individuals and families during the first 72 hours of an emergency or
disaster until help arrives.

"For less than $50, you can get a Ready Kit for your home, office or car,"
said Charley English, director of GEMA/Homeland Security. "This is a small
price to pay for peace of mind and ensuring that your family is prepared."
At www.ready.ga.gov, you will find an interactive preparedness tool to
help create custom checklists of emergency supplies and tailored
communications plans. Users also can log on with loved ones to help them
create their own plan.

For more information, visit
www.ready.ga.gov/Get-Involved/Community-Calendar


Preparedness Bulletin #17
September 9, 2010

Good-bye Earl, Hermine, Hello Igor!
Last week Hurricane Earl skimmed the eastern U.S. coastline peaking as a
Category 4 hurricane. Thankfully it stayed offshore enough to cause only
minor to moderate flooding in the eastern and northeastern Atlantic
states. However, Hurricane Earl wasn't the only recent contender out in
the tropics. . . . Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Texas coastline dumping
13+ inches of rain in certain areas earlier this week. This region was
desperate for rain. The low river and creek beds absorbed some of the
excess water, but unfortunately other areas were severely flooded. Now we
have Igor slowing creeping off the African coastline moving
north-northwest at 6 mph. Five day tracks have it going more westward in
the next few days with a possible turn to the north by Monday. Dr.
Frankenstein's assistant still has some friends currently floating over
central Africa which could yield him more company in the coming week.

Sept. 10: Peak of hurricane season
It's here, the peak of storm season, the day hurricanes are most likely to
be swirling in the Atlantic. Since 1851, when records were first kept,
more hurricanes have been in existence on Sept. 10 than any other date. In
that 159-year period, there have been 86 hurricanes. The next closest
date: Sept. 9, with 83 hurricanes. "It's the day, historically, we see the
most overall activity," said James Franklin, top hurricane specialist at
the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County. Although it's not the
midpoint of the six month season, Sept. 10 is almost dead center of the
meanest stretch of the season, from mid-August through the first week in
October. During that seven week period, the waters in the Eastern Atlantic
tend to be at their warmest and the winds at their lightest, allowing
hurricanes to spawn near the Cape Verde Islands. It is when conditions are
at their ripest for storms to bulk up, Franklin said. "Cape Verde
hurricanes do tend to be the stronger storms," he said.

On the other hand, storms aren't more likely to be at their maximum
strength on Sept. 10, said Phil Klotzbach, the Colorado State University
climatologist who develops seasonal predictions with William Gray. "In
general, more major hurricanes occur during the month of September than in
any other month," Klotzbach said. "But I don't think that storms on Sept.
10 necessarily are going to be more intense than storms say 10 days
earlier or 10 days later."

Extremely intense hurricanes can develop at any time between July and
November. Further, hurricanes aren't more likely to strike land on Sept.
10; none have hit the U.S. coast on that date in the past 20 years. On
average, by Sept. 10, six named storms have emerged, including three
hurricanes, one with winds greater than 110 mph. So far, this season is
progressing faster than normal, with nine named storms, including three
hurricanes, two intense. After Sept. 10, the tropics slowly start to wind
down. The Atlantic waters start to cool and the winds begin to pick up,
making storm formation more difficult. By early October, tropical waves
coming off the coast of Africa are less likely to develop.

Hurricane forecasts evolve over the years
An article by Dan Wallach of the Beaumont (Texas) Enterprise and the
Associated Press showcases how hurricane forecasting has evolved from the
U.S. Coast Guard patrolling beaches to the satellite tracking systems we
have today. On September 8, 1900, Galveston, Texas was hit by a major
hurricane that caused a 20+ foot storm surge, destroying much of the
area's coastline. A Galveston meteorologist at the time described the
events before the powerful storm hit Galveston, "Unusually heavy swells
from the southeast, intervals of one to five minutes, overflowing low
places south portion of city three to four block from beach. Such high
water with opposing winds never observed previously." This observation was
the best warning the state received before the monster storm hit the next
day. The term "hurricane" wasn't widespread and actually trying to warn
people of such systems was a difficult task. This demonstrates how lucky
we are to have instruments that can detect and observe any storm in the
world. For more information on this article please click here.

Get a Kit, Give a Kit promoted on Good Day Atlanta
GEMA Director Charley English and Atlanta Red Cross staffer/flood survivor
Sherry Beams appeared today on Fox 5 TV's Good Day Atlanta morning show
to discuss the importance of having a Ready Kit and the new "Get a Kit,
Give a Kit" component of the Ready campaign. You can check out their
appearance at the link below:

My Fox Atlanta:
http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/dpp/good_day_atl/Get-a-Kit,-Give-a-Kit-Campaign-20100909-gda-sd


Preparedness Bulletin #16 September 2, 2010

Hello my name is Earl
The original forecast for the Atlantic Season might be a bit closer to
reality after a week like this one. Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, and
maybe Hermine behind Gaston. Africa is shooting off tropical systems
faster than we can look up the name for the next one. According to Steve
Rowley, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Charleston,
Hurricane Earl will create rough seas and treacherous rip currents
throughout today. Like the rude guest you don?t want at your party, Earl's
outermost winds and waves will only love tap the Georgia coastline.
However, our friends in North Carolina are a bit more worried than we are,
but thankfully it looks like Earl will pass 50-75 miles off the North
Carolina coast. In the coming week we will keep a close eye on Tropical
Depression Gaston which currently has more of a westward track into the
Caribbean.


Throw your money into the wind!
ABC News on Monday reported a way people can make money betting on where
hurricanes make landfall. The website is called ?Weather Risk Solutions?
in which you buy and sell Hurricane Risk Landfall Options (HuRLOs) that
represent regions of land. If you actually land the winning bet you split
the money with others who placed the same winning bet. Entrepreneur,
Kenneth Horowitz mentions this could help people deal with post hurricane
expenses: "The big insurance companies that provide windstorm insurance,
they're basically pooling money. That's how they offset a catastrophic
loss," he said. "What I've tried to do is basically the same thing, but
more on what I would call a retail basis ? for mom and pop." A "no
landfall" option will also be available to help offset costs as well. This
could appeal to homeowners and business owners who incur cost when a
hurricane is merely predicted. The benefits of this program could be
interesting to watch if it gets approved, but hold on to your money for
now. To find out more about this story click here.

GEMA PAO welcomes new member
I would like to introduce our newest Public Affairs Officer, Crystal
Paulk-Buchanan. Coming from the Georgia Department of Transportation (DOT)
she has proven herself to be a very capable public affairs professional.
In the future you will be hearing more from Crystal in this and other GEMA
publications. Stay tuned!


GEMA, Praise 102.5 "Get Ready" During National Preparedness Month
Throughout September, which is National Preparedness Month, GEMA/Ready
Georgia, Kroger and WPZE-FM Praise 102.5 are hosting ?Ready Clinics? to
help metro Atlanta residents prepare for emergencies. There are three per
week through September 25. At each clinic, a GEMA/ Ready Georgiarep will
be on hand to provide information about how to put together a Ready kit,
what should be included in a family disaster plan and more. Visitors can
register to win a Ready kit (one will be given away each week) and can
also pick up other Ready Georgia items. There will be an on-air person
from Praise at each event, and there will be at least one call-in during
each clinic.

All clinics are scheduled from 1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. at the following
locations:

Tues, Aug 31, 725 Ponce de Leon Avenue NE, Atlanta
Thurs, Sept 2, 2685 Metropolitan Parkway SW, Atlanta
Sat, Sept 4, 3425 Cascade Road SW, Atlanta
Tues, Sept 7, 3479 Memorial Drive, Decatur
Thurs, Sept 9, 4915 Flat Shoals Parkway, Decatur
Sun, Sept 12, 7125 Highway 85, Riverdale
Mon, Sept 13, 1232 South Hairston Road, Stone Mountain
Weds, Sept 15, 6055 Old National Parkway SW, Atlanta
Fri, Sept 17, 965 North Hairston Road , Stone Mountain
Tues, Sept 21, 5664 Jonesboro Road, Morrow
Thurs, Sept 23, 6678 Covington Highway, Lithonia
Sat, Sept 25, 1227 Rockbridge Road, Stone Mountain

Drop by one of the clinics and help spread the word. For more information,
please visit www.ready.ga.gov.

 


Preparedness Bulletin #15 August 26, 2010
Danielle and Earl sitting in a tree.

The Atlantic has been quite active this past week with the formation of Hurricane Danielle and Topical Storm Earl. As good ole' Buzz would say, "The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season has finally begun" Danielle is currently a Category 2 hurricane with the potential to become a Category 3 as it passes near Bermuda. Earl is trailing right behind Danielle, but is forecast to turn north further west than Danielle did. In the end, both storms will more than likely have a minimal impact on the US shoreline.

Oh Fiona, Are you out there?

Like clockwork, wave after wave have been leaving the west coast of Africa just in time for the "peak" of the season. Could of one of these waves be future Tropical Storm Fiona? Currently two major High systems are over the Atlantic. (Eastern American and Bermuda) These two High systems currently have a gap between them which is allowing Danielle and Earl to slip northward. However current forecasts indicate the Bermuda High will move westward over the next week potentially closing the gap. As our Hurricane Planner, Chris Walsh puts it, this could potentially make the east coast of the United States more vulnerable to these systems. It could also push more storms through the Caribbean which could eventually land in the Gulf.
As most of you know we are heading towards the more active period of the tropical season and these incoming waves showcase what's ahead of us. Accuweather.com has an interesting piece on Fiona located here. The article highlights the two systems that will most likely be Fiona any day now.




The Great Hurricane Blowout!

This weeks website of choice is: www.greathurricaneblowout.org. The Great Hurricane Blowout is a great source of preparedness material for the 2010 hurricane season.

National Preparedness Month

September is National Preparedness Month and our Ready Georgia campaign is in full swing. Hurricane preparedness is a big part of being ready and GEMA is partnering with the American Red Cross for the first Prepare Georgia Summit on August 30th. The summit will start at 10am and is located at the American Red Cross on Monroe Drive. Ready Georgia is also launching a kids content, asking all 5th grade students across the state to recognize National Preparedness Month with a creative art and essay contest show casing how they can help friends and family prepare for the unexpected. For more information please visit Ready Georgia's website at www.ready.ga.gov.

Remembering Katrina...

Five years ago on August 29th, 2005 Hurricane Katrina hit the Louisiana coastline as a Category 3 hurricane creating about 80-90 billion dollars in damage in its wake. Thus making it the costliest Atlantic hurricane on record.

 

Question

The answer to last week's question, "What was the first year an aircraft flew into a hurricane?"" is 1943. For next week, answer this, Which hurricane in the past century had the greatest storm surge?


Preparedness Bulletin #14 August 19, 2010
Sure . . . I'll take the helm!

Good afternoon. Ken had to shimmy up to the crow's nest for a bit, so I'm at the wheel for now. Remember the intrepid Public Affairs Technology Specialist that he mentioned last week? Well, that's me - Robert Pierce. I'm the new guy on the block, best known until now for retooling GEMA's website. Maybe that will change if I, too, can steer us clear of any hurricanes like Hurricane Watch veterans, Buzz (retired) and Ken (not retired).

He came . . . he saw . . . he conked out!

Tropical Depression (TD) #5 was determined to make its mark on the Gulf Coast region after causing heavy downpours and wind last week. The remnants of TD #5 returned to the Gulf of Mexico Monday to try and form a Tropical Cyclone one last time. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted, "Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development of this system as it moves generally westward and then west-northwestward over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so." However, try as it might, TD #5 couldn't find the strength to survive and eventually broke up over eastern Louisiana (again). GEMA Hurricane Planner Chris Walsh announced its demise on Tuesday, thus ending the mighty struggle of this system.

Elsewhere, the Atlantic is pretty quiet. The NHC is highlighting some mild activity over the western Caribbean Sea, but currently only lists this system at a 10 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Statistically the last week of August and September are the most active periods so we are not quite out of the woods yet.


I like blue better than green . . . I think

According to researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) the color of the ocean could actually have an effect on hurricane formation and intensity. A team of  NOAA researchers studied the North Pacific where more than half the world's hurricanes form.  The lead researchersays the ocean has more of a green tint because of large concentrations of a pigment called chlorophyll. Chlorophyll lets small organisms called phytoplankton (try saying that ten times fast) convert sunlight into food for the rest of the ocean. Lower concentrations of phytoplankton, which in turn could lower the amount of chlorophyll, allows sunlight to penetrate deeper into the ocean. Deeper sunlight penetration leads to cooler surface temperatures which tends to prevent thunderstorms from developing the necessary superstructure allowing them to grow into hurricanes. I think this means the greener the ocean, the stronger the storm. And, conversely, the bluer the ocean, the weaker the storm. Anyway, that's my take on this "science speak."  


Look into my crystal ball

To novice meteorologists out there, the graphic above should be very alarming ... for those who are not, it depicts a tropical cyclone making landfall on the Georgia coast on August 28, 2010. Who could predict such an ominous scenario? This is not the work of somebody craft with Photoshop, this is an actual prognostication from the Global Forecast System (GFS), a super computer based weather prediction model .. and this prediction was made on Tuesday. The GFS model is run four times daily by the National Center for Environmental Prediction, NOAA center for computer based weather prediction. The GFS is just one of many models . . . the GFDL, NOGAPS, among them . . . that attempt to predict the unpredictable: Mother Nature.

Do we all need to go out and buy bread and milk? Not exactly. This particular weather prog was derived from looking very deep into the crystal ball: 12 days deep to be exact. Weather prediction models have what us technical types call ... error, and it compounds with time. Why? A computer model needs an accurate snapshot of what's going on to predict what will happen, and actual direct measurements of the weather, relatively speaking, are far and few in between. Additionally, the models don't understand the weather perfectly, so error compounds further.

By the way, today's GFS progs have that "hurricane" about 1500 miles from the Georgia coast on August 28, 2010 . . . I wonder what it will predict tomorrow.
 

Question

The answer to last week's question, "In which year were the most hurricane names retired?" is 2005. For next week, answer this,"What was the first year an aircraft flew into a hurricane?"


Preparedness Bulletin #13 August 12, 2010
Zero, Nada, Zilch, Nothing (Tropical) Is Out There . . . Right Now!

The U.S. Atlantic coast is as calm as a millpond and the Gulf of Mexico, except for some rain and wind around the Louisiana coast, is like glass, too, for the immediate future. That low pressure associated with remnants of Tropical Depression #5 (which died yesterday) is still centered near the southeastern Louisiana coast causing locally heavy rains and occasionally gusty winds as it drifts inland during the next day or so. There is a zero percent chance of this system redeveloping into a tropical storm within the next two days.

So, if you've always wanted to go sailing or deep-sea fishing, but were worried about getting sea-sick, now's the time to get your sea legs! Make haste to the nearest port, find a vessel, and set sail because the Gulf and the Atlantic don't get much calmer than this. Talk about "clear sailing!"  Hurricane or tropical storm watching won't be on anyone's "to do list" for several days to come.  


It's Baaack! Mild Drought Grips Parts Of Georgia

According to State Climatologist David Stookesbury of UGA, drought conditions have returned to north-central, west-central and southwest Georgia. Since spring, counties in these areas have received between 50 and 75 percent of normal rainfall amounts while temperatures have soared well above normal. Mild drought conditions exist in Towns County in north-central Georgia. Also, mild drought conditions exist in the west-central and southwest Georgia counties of Harris, Muscogee, Chattahoochee, Stewart, Quitman, Randolph, Clay, Calhoun, Early, Miller, Seminole, Decatur, Grady, Thomas and Brooks.

With the exception of Atlanta and Macon which have received above normal rainfall over the past month, much of the state is "abnormally dry." With temperatures remaining in the 90s and low 100s with little or no rain, soils statewide will continue to dry. This will lead to increased plant stress. Soil moisture and stream flows will continue to decline. Dryness across the state is expected to increase over the next several weeks unless Georgia receives beneficial rains from one or more tropical disturbances, such as a tropical storm or hurricane. Up-to-date information on dry conditions across Georgia can be found at www.georgiadrought.org. Updated weather conditions can be found at www.georgiaweather.net


Directions To A Very Cool Storm Tracking Site_Stormpulse

Thanks to the internet prowess of GEMA's intrepid Public Affairs Technology Specialist Robert Pierce (remember that name), here's an awesome Website that will come in handy whenever something worth tracking develops in the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico (actually the Pacific, too, but we have enough to do already):

http://www.stormpulse.com/
 

Question

The answer to last week's question, "Between which dates are we likely to see the sharpest increase in hurricane frequency this year in the U.S.," is August 20 through September 11. For next week, answer this,"In which year were the most hurricane names retired?"


Preparedness Bulletin #12 August 5, 2010


I'd Like "Where's Buzz?" for $1,000, Please, Alex

In keeping with the headline theme of the past two editions of The Hurricane Watch, it is my honor to announce the retirement of GEMA Public Affairs Coordinator "Extraordinaire" Buzz Weiss. After pressing the send button on last week's Watch, Buzz rubbed elbows with about 50 well-wishers during a reception/celebration befitting a legend. So after 15 years with GEMA and 19 with the State Senate, Buzz took it to the house but it's unlikely he'll be able to stay there for long. Rest assured he'll be out and about and amongst us again very soon "Buzzing" like always. We appreciate his years of dedicated service and wish him the best in retirement.


So yours truly, Ken Davis, re-takes the helm, for now, as hurricane watchman until further notice.

Count Colin Down_But Not Out

The remnant of Tropical Storm Colin is located about 300 miles north of the Virgin Islands and  could make a strong comeback and threaten Bermuda this weekend, then Atlantic Canada early next week. This system became a little better organized this morning. While it lacks a well-defined circulation, tropical storm force winds are likely occurring over water well to the north of the Virgin Islands. Slow development of this system is possible during the next couple of days and it has the potential to regain tropical storm status later today or on Fridayand perhaps could become a minimal hurricane at some point.There is a medium chance_say 50 percent_of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Colin won't be a big deal for Bermudabut it could be a big nuisance and disrupt travel. Beach goers, swimmers, and lifeguards should keep alert for changing surf conditions this weekend along the East Coast. Storms passing by offshore, such as hurricanes, still bring the risk of frequent and stronger-than-usual rip currents.


NHC Lowers '10 Hurricane Forecast, AccuWeather.com Sticks With 18-21 Storms

Although National Hurricane Center forecasters slightly reduced their seasonal outlook on Thursday, now calling for 14 to 20 named storms including eight to 12 hurricanes, AccuWeather.com still expects a bumper crop of named tropical systems in the Atlantic Basin this season. The peak of hurricane season is mid-September. However, during the second half of August, the number of named systems in the Atlantic typically ramps up at a marked pace. AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert, Joe Bastardi stated in his blog this morning that "during years when there is a reverse from El Nino to La Nina, there is an average of 4.3 storms by August 15 and 18.5 storms for the total season." Water temperatures, atmospheric pressure, wind shear, jet stream level winds, ocean cycles and air temperature patterns over continental North America are only some of the additional parameters that are examined. Meteorologist Mark Mancuso commented, "The Cape Verde Season typically doesn't kick into gear until late August."

It seems there'll be a showdown at high noon, pretty soon between these two groups of tropical prognosticators.
 

Question

Last week we asked what does the "SLOSH" model predict?  The SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) Model computes storm surge heights and winds from tropical cyclones. This week's question is, "Between which dates are we likely to see the sharpest increase in hurricane frequency this year in the U.S.?"

Preparedness Bulletin #11 - July 29, 2010


I'd Like "Wimpy Hurricane Seasons" for $1,000, Please, Alex

So here we are at the end of July with only two relatively minor tropical events to record - Alex and Bonnie. And the National Hurricane Center says there's nothing brewing out there at the moment - just the tropical waves that we've seen chugging across the lower latitudes since early June. We should note, of course, that this is a pretty common pattern for this time of year.

But we should also know better than to gloat, because the hurricane season doesn't usually fire up in earnest 'til mid-August. And AccuWeather is reporting that we should fasten our seatbelts because Mother Nature is getting restless. They note the ominous warm waters and say that - along with other factors - will likely give one of those tropical waves a little muscle. In case you're wondering - the next named storm will be Colin.

But Why Do I Have to go Back to School in August, Mr. Wizard?

Because I said so, Billy - and I will send the hurricane to your house if you don't.

As we noted above, tropical activity is expected to pick up in August. One of the reasons is that even as temperatures begin to taper off after the "dog days" the oceans continue to absorb heat, which is the fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes. In fact, most forecasters are calling for more activity in August. AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi predicts six named storms - and he says two or three could hit somewhere along the U.S. coast. We'll see.

"Multi-Peril Insurance Act" - Even the Name Sounds Ominous

Still some angst and turmoil in Washington over a proposal to make some big changes in the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). At issue is whether to expand NFIP to sell coverage for wind damage. The bill's sponsor suggests the government can do a better job. Critics say it would negatively impact the insurance industry and bankrupt NFIP. A vote on the bill was postponed last week. And an 11thhour compromise is being pursued before Congress heads for home tomorrow.

A Different Kind of Tornado

With the active portion of hurricane season looming, don't forget that tornadoes are frequently spawned by landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. You may recall that 2005's Hurricane Katrina generated 18 tornadoes across the state after hitting the Gulf coast. And hurricane-related tornados are a little different than the other garden variety twisters. For one thing, they aren't usually accompanied by hail or significant lightning. And they can occur at any time of day, unlike other tornadoes that are more likely to hit in late afternoon or early evening.

Question

Last week we asked the average depth of Georgia's continental shelf from the coast outward 25 miles. It averages 60 feet - very shallow. Today's question - What does the "SLOSH" model predict?

Preparedness Bulletin #10 July 22, 2010



I'd Like "Depression and its Symptoms for $1,000, Please, Alex

We're watching Tropical Depression #3 this afternoon as it looms over the Bahamas. The storm has generated a tropical storm warning for the east and west coasts of south Florida, and tropical storm watches for northern parts of Florida's east coast,

As of 2:00 this afternoon, the storm was located about 400 miles east-southeast of Key Largo - with sustained winds of 35 mph - nearing tropical storm strength of 39 mph. If it becomes a tropical storm - which could occur this evening - it will be dubbed Bonnie.  Areas of south Florida are expecting up to six inches of rain tomorrow.

At this time, it looks like the storm will continue to move to the west-northwest - across south Florida and into the Gulf by Saturday. There are indications that wind shear and dry air might impede or slow its intensification. But we all know better than to wager too much of our credibility against Mother Nature. Doesn't look like it should have any significant impact on Georgia, but it will definitely put a crimp in oil clean-up efforts in the Gulf.

Good News - Bad News

State Climatologist David Stooksbury says Georgia is again experiencing a hot, dry summer, and that some areas of the state have seen less than half their normal rainfall. And that, he points out, sets the stage for the classic good news-bad news dilemma. Dr. Stooksbury notes that a La Nina pattern has come into play, which increases the likelihood of a busy hurricane season and the likelihood of a landfalling hurricane. But the onset of a tropical storm later in the summer could relieve the extreme dry - and potential drought - conditions that are likely to continue.

So Tell Me Again - What Exactly Does This Cover?

The U.S. House was continuing efforts this week to pass legislation (HB 1264) to revise the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to include wind damage coverage. The proposal has generated a lot of debate and discourse - about whether the government or the private sector can do a better job at this. We'll let each of you form your own opinions. And we'll keep you posted on the bill's progress

Question

Our question last week was about the "dog days" - when do they begin and end?  Well to start with, the "dog days" are so named because the Egyptians believed that the Dog Star (Sirius) increased the temperature as it rose and set with the sun during the late summer. So they are said to begin on the first day that the sun and Sirius rise together in July and end when that astronomical pattern ends - after about 20 days. This year that will be August 11.

Today's question - What is the average depth of Georgia's continental shelf from the coast outward 25 miles?

Preparedness Bulletin #9 July 15, 2010

So Where Are Those 23 Storms You Promised?

Over the last week, we've looked at the weather maps, and we've looked again. And we even got our own GEMA Hurricane Program Manager and meteorologist Chris Walsh - our "weather dude" as he prefers to be called - to look over our shoulders. But there's just nothing brewing out there in the Atlantic Basin - other than the usual tropical waves and thunderstorms that sprinkle the lower latitudes. Don't take this the wrong way, though. We're not looking for trouble. We're just posing a question.

But let's don't let our guard down. You've heard the predictions - for what they're worth. July tends to be a fairly clement month, so we'll see what happens as August looms.

Say "Hola" to La Nina

Weather Underground is reporting that with the continued cooling of the eastern Pacific, La Nina has officially arrived. According to wundeground.com, and NOAA, eastern Pacific sea surface temps are .8 degrees (Celsius) below average, which indicates the onset of La Nina, although these conditions must remain in place for several months before forecasters officially pronounce it a "La Nina event."

So what does it mean?  Forecasters say the number and intensity of hurricanes tends to increase during La Nina events. We'll explore this in more detail next week.

And the Fourth Runner-Up Is. . . .

The Weather Channel has issued its top five most vulnerable and overdue cities for a hurricane strike. And Savannah comes in at #4. The Weather Channel notes that the last hurricane to make landfall along the Georgia coast was the Category 1 Hurricane David in 1979, which produced a storm surge of 3-5 feet.

Miami ranked #1, with New York City coming in second and Tampa third. Atlantic City, NJ was in 5thplace.
 
It's Like Thunder and Lightnin' . . .I Better Knock, Knock, Knock on Wood

Well maybe you don't remember the song, but we're using it to make a point. Four metro Atlanta teenagers have been struck by lighting over the past two weeks. Two died and the other two were seriously injured.

Landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms can trigger thunderstorms and lightning. But lightning is also a common occurrence with the garden variety afternoon thunderstorms that we see so often here in Georgia. And lighting can be deadly. According to the National Weather Service, an average of 58 people are killed by lightning every year in the United States and hundreds more are permanently injured or disabled. Fourteen people have been killed by lightning across the U.S. so far this year.

The AJC quotes a National Weather Service expert lighting as saying July is the worst month for lightning strikes, because school is out and families are taking vacations.

A couple of things to remember:

·        If you hear lightning, then lightning is close  enough to strike you.
·        When you hear thunder, move to a safe shelter such as a substantial building or hard­top vehicle.
·        Don't take shelter under a tree.
·        If stranded in a open areas, get into a crouch to become a smaller target.
·        Don't use land-line telephones, computers or other electrical equipment.

Question

Our question last week was - How many tropical storms or hurricanes have crossed from the Atlantic Basin into the Northeast Pacific Basin or vice versa? The answer - 10, between 1949-2008.

Today's question - We're in the throes of the "dog days."  When to they begin and end?

Preparedness Bulletin #8 July 8, 2010



Let Me Have "Named Storms that Begin with the Letter B" for $200, Please, Alex

The weather pattern we've been watching over the last month is continuing, as low pressure systems and tropical waves glide across the lower latitudes of the Atlantic, occasionally turning fractious and turbulent as they cross through the Caribbean. A low pressure system that was lurking off the coast of Louisiana earlier this week couldn't make much of itself.

But right now, we're eyeing a tropical disturbance that, as of this morning, is in the Gulf about 80 miles from Brownsville, TX - following the same track as Hurricane Alex last week. It's not well organized at this time, but with sustained winds of 30-35 mph. and warm waters, it could develop into a tropical storm - Bonnie - before making landfall along the Texas/Mexico border later this afternoon, bringing more heavy rains to northeast Mexico and south Texas.

Remember, also, that these storms are large - and this one will potentially generate rough seas that impact oil spill clean-up efforts to the east.

. . . And Up Thru the Ground Came a'bubblin' Crude

GEMA Deputy Director Donna Burns travelled to the Gulf coast last week and met with local emergency managers in the Santa Rosa County, FL Emergency Operations Center (EOC) at Milton. Her quest was to get at the unedited and uneditorialized truth from the birds' eye view of local officials on just how the oil disaster - and the response - is progressing. And to help us here in Georgia to better anticipate the local challenges that might confront us if the spill ultimately affects us.

Donna met with the incident PIO, the planning director and other officials in the EOC, who spent more than two hours showing her the infrastructure supporting the response to the oil spill, and introducing her to the people working the incident at the local level. They also invited her to sit in on their daily conference call for local, state and federal officials to update the status of the response.

It didn't take long for Donna to sense the level of frustration that the locals have with BP, the company's response to the clean up - or lack thereof - and their delay in the processing of reimbursements to the cities and counties. In a conference call, she listened to a local county commission chairman who was very upset because a crew that was scheduled to clean up an area beach the night before did not show up. She sensed that this was not the first time this had happened.

She reviewed topographical maps that showed the plan of attack to protect  Santa Rosa and neighboring Escambia counties. Officials are not conceding the beaches, but they are a lot easier to clean up than the grassy marsh areas in the bays and inlets. Their main point of attack is in Perdido Pass and Pensacola Pass, where the Gulf flows into the Bay of Pensacola and Santa Rosa Sound. These are the grassy marsh areas where the oil can do the most damage to plants and wildlife. The counties are focusing their Tier 3 booming to defend these areas.

The state of Florida received $50 million from BP to pay for the Tier 3 booms and, in turn, contracted directly with local vendors for the equipment. Tier 1 and 2 booms are handled by the U.S. Coast Guard, and are placed according the USCG's Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan.  State and local government pay directly for overtime, supplies, equipment, such as skimmers and boats, and other equipment out of their own budgets, and then submit reimbursement requests to BP.

BP claim centers are set up at several locations in the Florida panhandle, including Navarre, Pensacola and Orange Beach. A visit to the Orange Beach site revealed an insight into the administrative process for claims. People with claims must call an 800 number and register - to get the green light to talk to reps at one of the claim centers, who will provide the necessary claim forms. Or, in the case of out-of-town condo owners who do not have access to a claim center, they can call the 800 number and register over the phone. A claims adjustor will contact them directly in 3-4 days. Either way, among the paperwork and documentation required - two previous years of tax returns. A call to the 800 number was quickly answered in about 30 seconds and the entire registration process only lasted 15 minutes.  Millions of dollars have already been paid out to individuals, businesses, governments and other entities in Florida alone. At last count in Florida, alone, the BP claims totaled 23,000, and approximately $19.4 million had been paid out.

The EOC produces a daily Sitrep - at 5:00 each afternoon, along with a news release. A beach report, and audio/video of beach conditions, and an oil report are posted each morning. According to Donna, the EOC personnel are doing a "phenomenal" job under difficult circumstances and quotes one of the EOC officials who noted, "if this was a Stafford Act disaster, we would know exactly what to do. . . we know Stafford Act disasters, but we don't know this one."

Oh. . .and if you're counting. . . today is Day #80.

It Can't Be July Already!

It can. And it is. So what does July bode for us? Well, according to the Weather Channel, July is a relatively mild month - accounting for about nine percent of the named storms in any particular year. You can put down your calculators - we've already done the math.  It's an average of one-per-July. And major hurricanes are also fairly rare in July.

But we seem to relish bad news - so consider that there were five named storms in July, 2005 - the memorable season that brought us Katrina and 27 other named storms. And need we remind you that forecasters say that 2010 will be a long summer. So we'll keep someone on the roof watching the skies.

 In Other Words. . . .

We really do put some time and effort into researching and drafting each week's Hurricane Watch- beginning every Monday morning, looking at the Atlantic Basin, and turning to the National Hurricane Center, the Weather Channel, AccuWeather, Weather Underground and our own in-house Hurricane Program Manager and meteteorlogist Chris Walsh - to help us provide you, every Thursday, with a product you can use.

One of our goals in this effort is to take the techno-speak, and make it readable, comprehensible and relevant. We've learned a lot in the process. And so it was, that even we were somewhat baffled and befuddled - utterly stumped - by a recent Weather Underground reference to a "mesoscale convective complex/tropical feature."Sounds ominous. Makes you want to check your will and make a quick trip to the nearest church confessional. So with angst and trepidation, we approached the learned Mr. Walsh - only to find comfort and to discern that it means, simply, multiple thunderstorms. I'm relieved. And you're welcome.

Question

Last week's question - how long is Georgia's shoreline? That's shoreline, not coastline - including island, rivers, etc. Most of the answers were pretty much in the ballpark. It's right at 1,800 miles.

Today's question - How many tropical storms or hurricanes have crossed from the Atlantic Basin into the Northeast Pacific Basin or vice versa?

Preparedness Bulletin #7 July 1, 2010



Let Me Have "Hurricanes Named After Game Show Hosts" for $1,000, Please, Alex

After thrashing around the Caribbean and the western Gulf and walloping the Yucatan Peninsula, Hurricane Alex finally made landfall along the northeast coast of Mexico around 10:00 (our time) last night. Alex was not an impressive storm by any means, with winds of around 100 m.p.h. - a minimal Category 2.

As expected, it's weakening this morning - downgraded to a tropical storm as it lumbers into the Sierra Madre Mountains. But it will continue to spawn heavy rains and flooding in Mexico and parts of Texas. Areas of south Texas saw 5-7 inches of rain last night and can expect up to three inches today - maybe more - as forecasters warn that torrential rainfall and flooding will continue through this evening.

If you're looking for something to write in your record book, AccuWeather says Alex is the first hurricane to form in June since 1995.

Now we'll start scanning the oceans for Bonnie.

Are We There Yet, Daddy? Are We There Yet?

No. Not yet. We're still watching and waiting for the U.S. Senate to give its imprimatur to an extension of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). The program lapsed back on June 1, leaving no funding for new applications, as solons became embroiled in debate over other, unrelated provisions of the bill. This is causing problems for homebuyers required to have coverage because of their mortgages. We haven't heard any horror stories yet - but we'll keep our eyes and ears open. The U.S. House has already passed an extension, but as you know, any legislation - including appropriations measures - have to pass Senate and House in identical form.

C'mon Mr. Wizard. Unlock the Door or I'm Telling My Mom

Got a little more science for you this week. And yes - some day you'll thank me for it. One of the changes in forecasting this year has to do with the newly-tweaked Saffir-Simpson Scale. Now called the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, it will maintain the same wind speed ranges as the original Saffir-Simpson index, developed in 1969, but will no longer link specific storm surge and flooding effects to each of the five categories.

The revisions were made because storm surge values and associated flooding are dependent on several variables including the storm's intensity, size, motion, tidal variations and barometric pressure, as well as the depth of the coastal waters and other topographical and coastal characteristics. Hurricane forecasters say the storm surge values under the older scale sometimes fell outside the ranges of the five categories.

To illustrate their point, NHC forecasters compare 2008's Hurricane Ike, a Category 2 storm with a storm surge of 15-20 feet, to 2004's Hurricane Charley, a more powerful Category 4 hurricane that only generated a storm surge of 6-7 feet. They say the change will help to reduce public confusion about the possible impact of a hurricane.

Question

Last week we asked what Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl have in common. They occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic Basin September 25-27, 1998.  Today's question - How long is Georgia's shoreline? That's shoreline, not coastline - including island, rivers, etc.

Preparedness Bulletin #6 June 24, 2010


That You, Alex?

No. Not just yet. But we've been closely watching a turbulent and disturbed Caribbean over the past week. A fairly decent wind shear had prevented a series of low pressure systems and tropical waves from developing into tropical storms. But a wave, dubbed Invest 93, by NHC has spawned heavy thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles, and forecasters say it could become a tropical storm over the next couple of days. They're giving it a 40 percent chance. The storm would be named Alex, but you've probably guessed that already. We'll keep watch.

How Can I Be Overdrawn?  I Still Have Checks

America's economic woes are being fueled by the rash of natural disasters that have plagued us in recent years. That - according to Dr. J. David Rogers, Hasselman Chair of Geological Engineering at Missouri University of Science and Technology. And with a title like that you know he's got to be credible.

In a recent speech to Federal Reserve Bank officials, Rogers noted the uptick in hurricanes, flooding and earthquakes over the past two decades, which he attributes to natural cycles. Rogers, quoted in the Insurance Journal, says more money has been spent on natural disasters in the last 20 years than the total amount spent in all the years before that.

"The National Flood insurance Program was bankrupted by Katrina and Rita," says Rogers, "We are underwater in debt from hurricanes, floods and other natural disasters."

I'll Exercise, But You Can't Make Me Watch Richard Simmons!

Approximately 400 personnel from state, local and volunteer agencies will take part in GEMA's third biennial HURREX exercise next week. The full-scale exercise will evaluate the ability of these agencies and organizations to effectively respond to the needs of those individuals and jurisdictions in the event of a major hurricane landfall along the Georgia coast.

The exercise, which will run June 28-30, will simulate pre-landfall, post-landfall and demobilization phases, and will incorporate all 15 emergency support functions (ESFs). The State Operations Center at Atlanta will be activated along with other support sites in Savannah, Forsyth and Dublin.

The exercise is particularly timely as weather experts are forecasting one of the most active hurricane seasons in recorded history.

So, Define "Active"

AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi is already re-calculating his predictions - as meteorologists seem inclined to do. He now predicts 18-21 named storms this hurricane season. That's up from the 16-18 he augured as the season began. Bastardi crawls a little further out on the limb to forecast four named storms in July, with one or two striking the U.S. coast. But remember - it's all about preparedness and not about the numbers and guesstimates. It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm to spoil the day.

Happy Birthday

This week marks the 150thanniversary of the formation of the U.S. Army Signal Corps. Now why, exactly, are we celebrating this? Other than the fact that G-mites like cake and ice cream, it's because the Signal Corps was the forerunner of the modern-day National Weather Service.

Question

Last week we asked what is the average distance that a tropical storm or hurricane travels in the Atlantic Basin? The answer is 1,620 miles. Today's question - what do Hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl have in common?

Newsletter #5

Preparedness Bulletin #5 - June 17, 2010


Let Me Have False Starts for $1000 Please, Alex

We've been watching a low pressure system way out in the Atlantic that was about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles when we last saw it - you can go to your map and find it like I did. It looked like it might have been bulking up to become the year's first named storm. But when we checked this morning, all was quiet. It seems to have sputtered - tripped up by dry air and strong westerly winds and shear that suppressed it as it turned to the north-northwest.

Gee, Mr. Wizard, How Will We Know When There's a Hurricane Coming?

We haven't gotten the best of Mother Nature just yet, but weather forecasting technology continues to improve. Beginning this hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will issue watches and warnings for tropical storms and hurricanes 12 hours earlier than in past years.

Tropical storm watches will be issued when tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours - up from 36 hours. Tropical storm warnings will be posted when conditions are expected within 36 hours - up from 24 hours. Hurricane watches and warnings will also be issued 48 and 36 hours, respectively, before the onset of tropical storm force winds. The extended advisories are the result of improvements in hurricane track forecasts.

"With increase in population and infrastructure along vulnerable U.S. coastlines, emergency managers need more lead time in order to make life­-saving decisions regarding evacuations," says NHC Director Bill Read.

Turn the Radio Up - I Think He Said Something About a "Herman Cain Warning"

GEMA is encouraging everyone to prepare themselves, their family, their pets and their business by visiting the Ready Georgia website at www.ready.ga.gov. Georgia residents can register to win one of 200 state-of the-art, digital alert Midland NOAA weather radios, between now and July 19, by creating a profile on ready.ga.gov, where they will get a customized emergency family plan. In addition, the radios can be purchased from Kroger stores statewide at a reduced rate of $29.99 from $49.99.

So why are you sitting in front of your computer reading this? Either create your profile or go buy a radio!

Yes, We Have No Insurance

You'll recall that we reported a couple of weeks ago that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) kitty was empty - funding for the program had lapsed and new policies were not being written. Eternally optimistic and hoping for the best, we mustered our courage, uncovered our eyes, and peered into the mist and morass of Washington. Alas - still no funding. The Senate voted yesterday to reject legislation to reauthorize the program, which became bogged down in debate over other - unrelated - sections of the bill. We'll keep you posted.

Question

Last week we asked how long the U.S. Gulf coast is including bays and various inlets. The "outline" of the coast is 1,631 miles. But the answer we were looking for is 17,141 miles, which is the "tidal shoreline" including sounds, bays, and the various other nooks and crannies.

Today's question - what is the average distance that a tropical storm or hurricane travels in the Atlantic Basin?


Newsletter #4

Preparedness Bulletin #4  - June 10, 2010


I Hear Hurricanes A-blowin. . .There's a Bad Moon on the Rise

With predictions of an active season, we're keeping our eyes open. But no - we don't see a hurricane a-blowin anywhere in the Atlantic Basin just yet. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports a few tropical waves, skulking along the lower latitudes, so if you see one, just wave back. But there's no reason to expect any development at this time.

And What is so Rare as a Day in June? Then, if Ever, Come Perfect Days

So why did we plagiarize this line from the long-dead and long-irrelevant poet, James Russell Lowell? Well, because it makes us sound erudite and, more importantly, because it's June - and even with predictions of a portentous hurricane season, June tends to be a fairly calm month. According to the Weather Channel, there have only been 68 named storms to occur in June since modern-day record-keeping began back in 1886. And only seven hurricanes have formed in June since 1965 - the last one was 15 years ago.

Hold on a second, though. GEMA Hurricane Program Manager and meteorologist Chris Walsh agrees that June is a clement month, but notes that the "naming" of storms didn't begin 'til after World War II, and that satellite-based recon didn't come along until 1966, so we really don't have good data on activity in the central and eastern Atlantic. He cites NHC stats that show 80 tropical storms and 31 hurricanes in June over the past 160 years. They're pretty soothing numbers, so let's hope Mother Nature doesn't turn outlaw - and break the law of averages.

I'd Like Definitions for $200, Please, Alex

Complacency: a feeling of quiet pleasure or security, often while unaware of some potential danger, defect, or the like; self-satisfaction or smug satisfaction with an existing situation, condition, etc

Sound familiar? Thought we'd remind you of that definition since complacency seems to be setting in even in the face of what most weather forecasters say will be one of the most active hurricanes seasons in history.

A recent study conducted by Florida State University's Dr. Jay Baker, an esteemed expert in disaster behavior, shows that almost two-thirds of the Florida residents who live in certain hurricane evacuation zones didn't believe - or didn't know - they would be at risk from wind and water. And half of the residents say they don't have an evacuation plan. These numbers have increased since the last poll in 2006.

"Too few people in the most dangerous areas realize they're at risk, and too many people in relatively safe locations think they're at greater risk than they are," says Baker.

The survey was commissioned by the Florida Division of Emergency Management, and reported by the Weather Channel.

But Florida is just one state where apathy and complacency seem to rage unabated. A recent Mason-Dixon poll of coastal residents from Virginia to Texas found nearly half the people in America's hurricane-prone areas don't feel vulnerable. The poll revealed that nearly three out of four residents of coastal states do nothing to protect their homes from hurricanes, and one in three have no family disaster plan. More than half of the respondents didn't understand the threat of storm surge, and roughly half do not have flood insurance.

The Mason-Dixon poll does include Georgia, but the most recent survey conducted on our behalf, the GEMA Consumer Preparedness and Awareness Study, reflects somewhat better news. According to the survey, the number of households that are at least "somewhat prepared" for disasters and emergencies has increased by nine percent this year - from 65 percent to 72 percent of Georgia's households.


Newsletter #3

Preparedness Bulletin #3 - June 3, 2010

I'd Like "Extremely Active Hurricane Seasons" for $100, Please, Alex

The 2010 hurricane season officially began Tuesday - quietly in the Atlantic Basin, but with plenty of promise for a potentially cataclysmic season, according to most forecasters.

There's nothing brewing out there right now, but as we've reported previously, AccuWeather is forecasting as many as 18 named storms, including five hurricanes. And the NWS Climate Prediction Center says there could be as many as 23 named storms, including, up to 14 hurricanes.

And we should note - now that NWS and AccuWeather have spoken, Colorado State University changed their forecast just yesterday, upping their projection to 18 named storms, including 10 hurricanes. They had originally predicted 15 named storms including eight hurricanes.

According to Colorado State's ever-pithy Professor William Gray, "It looks like a hell of a year."

So let's keep our fingers crossed, but don't get complacent. Get into preparedness mode. Now! Check out www.ready.ga.gov. Don't want to hear any excuses when you and the pooch are sitting on your rooftop, watching the water rise, and pondering the meaning of personal responsibility.

From Atlantic to Pacific - Gee, the Weather is Horrific

While the Atlantic hurricane season arrived quietly, although Gulf Coast residents are understandably uneasy, anxious and angry, Mother Nature pulled the trigger on the Pacific season early this past weekend, as Tropical Storm Agatha slammed into the west coast of Central America and pounded Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras with unrelenting rains. As many as 150 people are believed to have died.

As a Matter of Fact, It Does Take an Act of Congress

With the onset of hurricane season, we always admonish you to - among other things- make sure you have flood insurance, through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIC). Well, we still recommend it, but it looks like you'll just have to tread water for a while - at least until next week.

Our friends at the American Insurance Association tell us that funding for the NFIP lapsed on June 1. Congress is in the midst of it's Memorial Day recess - and will not even begin to consider the so-called "extenders" legislation until next week. If you're keeping count, this marks the fourth time the NFIP program has lapsed in the past six months. But if you do have flood insurance, this lapse does not affect you.

Newsletter #2


     Preparedness Bulletin #2 - May 27, 2010

Five Days and Counting. . . . .

The 2010 hurricane season begins Tuesday. And we may not have to wait long before Mother Nature roils the Atlantic Basin waters. Sultry sea surface temps are well above normal and have already broken records. Some forecasters are calling for a season that will start early and stay late.

AccuWeather's Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Joe Bastardi warns that ". . . 2010 may be remembered as the hurricane season from Hades." Hmmmm. . . gosh, darn it, that's pretty strong language, Joe.

Over the past week, forecasters had their eyes on a low pressure system that stalked the area between Bermuda and the Bahamas. It generated heavy rain, thunderstorms and gale force winds, but remained disorganized and never presented any real threat.

Another Official Prediction

The NWS Climate Prediction Center issued its official prognostication for the '10 season this morning. And it doesn't look good. They're forecasting between 14-23 named storms, including 8-14 hurricanes, 3-7 of which could be major.

As always, we note that preparedness is important no matter how many storms are forecast, but the sheer numbers this year are causing us some indigestion.

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," says Dr. Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

Our advice " don't book any cruises this summer.

Oil and Water. . .

This hurricane season - dire predictions notwithstanding - could have an arguably different twist as the BP oil catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico continues to unfold. Many are wondering what impact, if any, the oil spill will have.

Well, The Hurricane Watch spared no expense and sent forth its intrepid  research team (Ken & Buzz) on a mission to ferret out answers to that question, while dutifully avoiding overtime. Here's what we found.

Some forecasters say it all depends on the track of a possible hurricane or tropical storm. If a storm were to veer toward the western Gulf it would push the spill further north creating a more ominous threat to Louisiana and Texas. So says NWS meteorologist Phil Hysell. And according to USA Today, NOAA cautions that one or more hurricanes could force oil up from below the surface and push it ashore in a storm surge.

There is also a school of thought that says the surface slick will reduce evaporation and limit a storm's source of energy. But The Weather Channel's Dr. Rick Knabb debunks that argument, saying that the Gulf of Mexico is large and that tropical cyclones won't necessarily form over the area covered by the oil. And he says the oil slick, though large, is relatively small when compared to most tropical storms or hurricanes.

The Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters concurs that oil slicks could affect the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm. But he says a full-blown hurricane would mix the oil and water to the extent it would have no impact on evaporation. "The oil slick is currently Delaware-sized, while a hurricane tends to be Texas-sized, and I doubt that the oil slick at its current size is large enough to have a significant impact on a hurricane's intensity," says Masters.

So, the answer is: well, there is no clear answer. That's our story and we're sticking to it.

Newsletter #1

Preparedness Bulletin #1
May 20, 2010



Hurricane Season Nears

The 2010 hurricane season is approaching - it starts June 1 - and GEMA's weekly Hurricane Watch is back. Each week, we'll bring you up to date on the threat of tropical weather and provide some information that will hopefully help you when the tropical winds blow and the waters rise.

An Active Season

Pre-season hurricane predictions are of little value, other than to call attention to the threat of severe tropical weather and to hopefully encourage preparedness. As we have often noted, there is really no nexus between the level of activity and the likelihood or location of landfall. And predictions are often wide of the mark. In fact, last year's puny hurricane season spawned only nine named storms and just three hurricanes - the fewest in 12 years - in the wake of some predictions that had augured as many as 14 named storms. But be that as it may, Colorado State University and AccuWeather are out with their predictions for an active '10 season.  

The Colorado State weather gazers are calling for 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of which could be Category 3 or  higher. AccuWeather says to look for as many as 18 named storms, including five hurricanes.

And some of the science we've seen has caught our attention, giving those forecasts some credibility. Forecasters cite a weakening El Nino, warmer-than-normal Atlantic surface temperatures, and diminishing trade winds. The warm surface temps are of particular concern. February surface temperatures were reportedly at record highs in the area of the Atlantic where most hurricanes form, and were warmer than they were in June of last year. The most recent data for April also sets a record. Forecasters point to a relationship between record warm surface temps and intense hurricane activity.

Hurricane Preparedness Week

May 23-29 is Hurricane Preparedness Week - we'd have sent a card if we could have found one. Anyway, it's a good opportunity to brush up on hurricane awareness and preparedness, and to learn how to take potentially life-saving action. Here's a link. Check it out. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/intro.shtml.

Hurricane Names

The names for this hurricane season - Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter.

The list includes four new monikers to replace the names that were retired because of the extensive damage they caused in 2004. Colin replaces Charley. Fiona succeeds Frances.  Igor replaces Ivan. And Julia takes over for Jeanne.